
Top Tier Starters |
Solid Mid Level Starters |
Don’t Bother |
Sleepers |
1. Tom Brady |
Matt Ryan |
Eli Manning |
Kyle Orton |
2. Drew Brees |
Ben Roethlisberger |
Matt Hasselbeck |
Byron Leftwich |
3. Aaron Rodgers |
David Garrard |
Jake Delhomme |
Trent Edwards |
4. Peyton Manning |
Joe Flacco |
Raiders QB |
Michael Vick |
5. Donovan McNabb |
Jason Campbell |
Browns QB |
Matt Leinart |
6. Kurt Warner |
Mark Bulger |
Dolphins QB |
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7. Philip Rivers |
Vikings QB |
Lions QB |
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8. Tony Romo |
Matt Cassel |
Titans QB |
|
9. Jay Cutler |
Mark Sanchez |
49er’s QB |
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10. Carson Palmer |
Matt Schaub |
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Quarterback is the new running back. While the quality running backs are being depleted by platoon approaches, asof now, there is only one starting QB per team. Of those starting QB's only a handful of those are worthy of your top fantasy pick. Brady or Brees in 2007, and Brees or Warner in 2008 single handedly won leagues for many owners. Draft a top quarterback, and you can fill your roster in with many mid round reciever and running back selections. Take a top QB, and take them early. Then gamble on a QB that has the chance to excell, but has some questions later in your draft.
The quarterback analysis here is in no particular order:
- Drew Brees – is the King of Consistency. 4400+ yards and 26+ TD’s each of last 3 seasons in New Orleans. Extremely accurate with the ability to make any WR look good. Interceptions are a bit high, but only because he throws the ball a lot. McAllister has been cut, and Reggie Bush is coming off Micro Fracture. Don’t expect the Saints to stop airing it out anytime soon.
- Tom Brady – is the Clear #1 value if healthy. Brady may have the leagues second best WR core. There may be slight learning curve for him to get back to game speed after an entire year off. The Patriots dealing away his primary back up is a good indication of where the team thinks his health is at
- Kurt Warner – 2008 surprise player of the year. Warner has the best WR’s in football across board in Fitzgerald, Bolden, and Breaston. Assuming one of those 3 starters suffers injury Jerheme Urban and Early Doucet have shown they are capable WR3’s. However your primary injury concern here will be with Warner himself. Warner has only played 3 complete seasons in entire career. Consider Matt Leinart a QB handcuff if you draft Warner.
- Peyton Manning – His age and potential injury are beginning becoming a factor or at least a concern for this once reliably fantasy favorite. Manning also no longer has the 1-2 punch of Harrison and Wayne. Dallas Clark will help in receiving game, but we may see more running without a dominant WR 2 to compliment Wayne.
- Aaron Rodgers – Is only in his 2nd year only as starter, but 5th in system. That means he will bring more experience at reading coverages and executing the offense then fellow second years starters Ryan and Flacco. Rodgers has shown somewhat of a proneness to injury. One series in 2007 resulted in a broken leg. Shoulder issues hampered his performance in 2008. The WR core in Green Bay is a good mix of young fast talent and experience veterans. If Rodgers can stay healthy he has the potential to put up big numbers, especially if the Packers have trouble getting the ground game going again in 2009.
- Philip Rivers – had a phenomenal 2008 campaign. His 2008 numbers may be a bit inflated due to poor defense and lack of production from LT. Norv Turner passed over 60% of time in 2008. That has only happened in a Norv Turner offense on 2 other occasions. Better defense and a stronger emphasis on run may temper Rivers 2009 numbers. Rivers does however have a highly talented and underrated receiving crew in Gates, Chambers, and Vincent Jackson. Rivers also has shown great toughness and the willingness to play through injury, and play effectively.
- Jay Cutler – Is an incredible talent w/ a 2 nd, maybe 3 rd tier WR crew. Watch for preseason chemistry w/ receiving TE Greg Olsen, the progression of Devin Hester as a WR, and the progression of 2 nd project WR Earl Monroe. Monroe has some chemistry with the bears new QB as they previously played together at Vandy.
- Tony Romo – Last season Romo showed that he is perhaps a bit overrated. He has demonstrated confidence issues, and does not seem to have strong passion for the game. The loss of TO, may or may not be better for the struggling QB. Dallas is hoping Roy Williams will be the New TO. Be careful what you wish for, Williams has the potential to bring TO like production, but also TO like disruption to the team.
- Donovan McNabb – has possibly the best receiving core he has had since the TO days. While talented however, his receivers are young. Kevin Curtis is only player not in 1 st or 2 nd year. Offensive line upgrades along with talented youth could mean better protection and more big plays down field. McNabb is another risk / reward player. Watch out for injuries. The fact that Philly wouldn’t extend his contract past the 2 existing years may be telling that McNabb may be nearing the end of his road.
- Matt Ryan – is playing in a tough conference with a tough non-conference schedule, as it seems in the preseason rankings. He has the advantage of another season and another camp. Unlike most 2 nd year quarterbacks he had a full year of experience last year and a solid ground game to help him out. Roddy White seems to be emerging as a premier receiver. Add a safety valve in Tony Gonzalez at TE, and Ryan should be poised for another solid year.
- Ben Roethlisberger – is Probably not a fantasy starter. While Ben has the potential to put up big numbers every week, he plays in a system that will prevent it. Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall should both be back healthy this season.
- Carson Palmer – This year’s ultimate risk/reward candidate. Some speculation that surgery should have been performed on a partially torn elbow tendon. Instead of surgery, Palmer opted for rest. While he has had a good track record of coming back from injuries, the elbow is definitely a concern for 2009. Chad Johnson claims he is back and the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh should be negated with the addition of Laveranues Coles. Chris Henry is reportedly ready to take the role and step up if Chad Ocho Cinco is unable to go, and is a solid #2 or 3 WR if everyone else is healthy. Palmer should have plenty of targets. The offensive line is also improved. The major question is health. Palmer could be the mid-round steal of this year’s draft.
- Trent Edwards – A sleeper candidate for sure. Edwards has been a bit dinged up and shown a proneness to concussions over his first two years in the league, but has also shown good decision making. For the first time he will have a solid WR1 and WR2 in Lee Evens and TO. Buffalo also has no shortage of other solid role players at WR and backs who catch well. Keep him in mind for later rounds. Also keep in mind he has a Bye week in week 9 when likely none of your other starters do.
- David Garrard – Decent skills with a good performance in 2007 followed by poor performance in 2008 behind an offensive line decimated by injuries. There has been vast improvement on the offensive line. The WR’s are still a bit of a question mark with an aging Torry Holt, an injury prone Mike Walker and a slue of speedy, but undersized rookie receivers. Even so, this may be one of the better receiving cores Jacksonville has seen since Jimmy Smith and Keenan McKardell. Look for more of the 2007 Garrard, but with a higher number of interceptions.
- Joe Flacco – If you are looking at him it is likely a back up role, you are in a large league, or are a Baltimore fan. This second year player showed promise as a rookie, but the retirement of Derrick Mason will not help. Further more, as the retirement came after both the draft and free agency, Baltimore will likely be unable to replace him and will rely heavily on the run.
- Eli Manning – Lost Plax at WR. Lots of young and inexperienced receivers combined with and average quarterback does not make for a great fantasy combo. Couple that with the fact that NY added to their RB depth in the draft, and you want to stay away from the younger Manning.
- Kyle Orton – Has never had any decent receivers, and is now paired with Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokley, and Tony Scheffler. That is heads and tails above what he had in Chicago. Also he will be working in McDaniels system. That same made Matt Cassel, who was a back up QB since high school a fantasy relevant QB who had back to back 400+ yard games in 2008
- Matt Hasselbeck – Stay Away! The injury that side lined him in 2008 was a pinched nerve in his back. This caused numbness in his legs due to swelling in his back. Any hard hit or sack will likely sideline him again this year. Don’t count on him anymore then a back up, even with his improved receiving crew.
- Jason Campbell – is a serviceable QB with a stellar receiver in Santana Moss and solid TE in Chris Colley, but little else. Repeated off-season attempts by the Redskins to trade Campbell may have shaken his confidence a little.
- Marc Bulger – Has had back to back down years. He has had a host of injuries. Most injuries have been due to a poor offensive line that has caused Bulger to be constantly running for his life. The Offensive line has improved, but the WR core has changed greatly since Bulger’s last good season in 2006. Steven Jackson if healthy catches the ball well out of the backfield and will help Bulger’s numbers. Don’t expect a 4,300-yard season with 24 TD’s like we saw in 2006, but he should be significantly better then he was in the last 2 years. Bulger will be a good back up and a borderline fantasy starter in most leagues.
- Brett Favre / Tavaris Jackson / Sage Rosenfels – Favre watch has officially reached its conclusion, thank God. And gues what? just when you thought it was over, he is baaack. Despite Jackson and Rosenfels knowing the offense and playbook better, Favre will be your starter. Jackson and Rosenfels will now battle to remain on the team instead of for the startin gig. The Vikings have been trying to get from Rosenfels from the Texans for 2 years. And Jackson is the head coache's man. All of these QB’s have some enticing targets with Sydney Rice, Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, and Visanthe Shiancoe. Adding Farve to this mix still does not change my oppinion of the Vikings QB situation. Whoever is behind center, Favre, Jackson, or Rosenfels will essentially rate as a solid back up with borderline fantasy starting potential. Don't count on Favre falling late for you to take him as a back up. Someone in your league will inevitablly take him early as their starter, at which point you can laugh and thank them for making it easier for you to make the playoffs.
- Matt Cassel – May have captured lightning in a bottle last year. This year in a new town, he has some talented receivers in Dwayne Bowe and Mark Bradley. However, losing Tony Gonzalez in the off-season defiantly hurts this developing QB. The running game is in question, and Kansas City has a new coaching staff. I would consider Cassel a late round flyer with some potential as he plays in a down conference. I would consider this a wait and see year for him.
- Matt Leinart – Warner is an injury risk that has only played 3 complete seasons in his career. That means Leinart may get a chance to take over the best receiving core in football at some point this season. If you Draft Warner, consider him a must draft handcuff. Otherwise take a late flyer on him, or make sure you have a high waiver priority for that eventual day when Warner goes down.
- Byron Leftwich / Other Bucs QB – The battle is will come to a head in training camp. Many expect McCown to win the job, but Leftwich brings more experience. Leftwich has a slow release and slow feet, but never had much of an offensive line in Jacksonville where he last started. This Bucs line is much better then he has ever seen. If given time Leftwich has plenty of arm to get the ball deep to talents like Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow.
- Mark Sanchez – is the closest we will get to Matt Ryan of 2008. He will likely be the day one starter and has solid protection up front. A good running game and a capable TE in Dustin Keller will help him out. Jerricho Cotchery while talented is no Roddy White. Sanchez will be a solid back up and maybe even a decent deep league starter.
- Michael Vick – What sports forum would be complete without a good Vick debate. While there is a lot to still be seen Vick could be an interesting fantasy player if you have a late round pick you don’t know what to do with. Obviously he will first need to be cleared to play this year. However some of the Mystery has been taken out of this equation now that the Eagles have picked him up. The Eagles is an exiting spot for him. Look for Vick to be used more as a WR / Scatback then a QB. If McNabb gets injured, which he has a history of doing of, then Vick is in a prime position to step in and take the riegns of an extremely talented team. If McNabb stays healthy, then Vick is another weapon in his arsenal, and Vick's value will go up. Right now in most fantasy sites Vick is still listed as a QB. If any of them change him to a QB/WR or a QB/RB, his value to you will go up. I can't imagine Andy Reid brought him in to occasionally run the wildcat, and step in if McNabb and Kolb get injured. Unless his position qualifier changes, consider him a late round flyer at this point.
- Matt Schaub – Is still a bit of a question mark. Schaub has had difficulty staying healthy at points. However, he has had flashes of brilliance both as a starter in Houston, and as a back up in Atlanta. The upside is he has great talent to throw to.
Updated 8/22/09

